Right Thinking From The Left Coast
The Government is merely a servant -- merely a temporary servant; it cannot be its prerogative to determine what is right and what is wrong, and decide who is a patriot and who isn't. Its function is to obey orders, not originate them. - Mark Twain

It’s Palin

McCain has made his choice:

Sen. John McCain has picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a senior McCain campaign official told CNN on Friday.

Palin, 44, who’s in her first term as governor, is a pioneering figure in Alaska, the first woman and the youngest person to hold the state’s top political job.

She catapulted to the post with a strong reputation as a political outsider, forged during her stint in local politics. She was mayor and a council member of the small town of Wasila and was chairman of the state Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, which regulates Alaska’s oil and gas resources, in 2003 and 2004.

The conservative Palin defeated two so-called political insiders to win the governor’s job—incumbent Gov. Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary and former two-term Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles in the 2006 general election. iReport.com: What do you think of McCain’s VP pick?

Palin made her name in part by backing tough ethical standards for politicians. During the first legislative session after her election, her administration passed a state ethics law overhaul.

I think that this is mainly an effort to woo the disgruntled Clinton supporters.  But no matter what the reason, it’s a good choice.  Palin is conservative, likable and popular.  She has supported windfall profits taxes on oil companies in Alaska, however.  So we’ll have to see how that plays out.

Your thoughts?

Update: Dad gum, I wish I’d thought of this.

Posted by Hal_10000 on 08/29/08 at 08:22 AM (Discuss this in the forums)

Comments


Posted by on 08/29/08 at 09:33 AM from United States

Palin is the ideal choice for McCain.  She’s a new, fresh face, a clear outsider.  She can make Biden look like an a-hole and can deflect McCain’s age problem.  She has proven leadership experience and has shown she can take on big names in politics.  She has a family life and values that shore up the GOP base and then some.  She’s also a woman, which adds to the historic nature of this election and doesn’t let the Dems argue against “two old white guys”.  If this is an example of McCain’s ability to select subordinates (i.e. appointments), he’s knocked it out of the park.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 09:37 AM from United States

This snippet from Wikipedia regarding Palin is incredible:

In 1984, after winning the Miss Wasilla contest earlier that year, Palin finished second in the Miss Alaska beauty pageant which won her a scholarship to help pay her way through college.[5] In the Wasilla pageant, she played the flute and also won Miss Congeniality.

Palin holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Idaho where she also minored in politics.

Her husband, Todd, is a Native Yup’ik Eskimo.[5] Outside the fishing season, Todd works for BP at an oil field on Alaska’s North Slope[6] and is a champion snowmobiler, winning the 2000-mile “Iron Dog” race four times.[5] The two eloped shortly after Palin graduated college; when they learned they needed witnesses for the civil ceremony, they recruited two residents from the old-age home down the street.[5] The Palin family lives in Wasilla, about 40 miles (64 km) north of Anchorage.[7]

She briefly worked as a sports reporter for local Anchorage television stations while also working as a commercial fisherman with her husband, Todd, her high school sweetheart.[5] One summer when she was working on Todd’s fishing boat, the boat collided with a tender while she was holding onto the railing; Palin broke several fingers.[5]

On September 11, 2007, the Palins’ eighteen-year-old son Track, eldest of five, joined the Army.[7] He now serves in an infantry brigade and will be deployed to Iraq in September 2008. She also has three daughters: Bristol, 17; Willow, 13; and Piper, 7.[8] On April 18, 2008, Palin gave birth to her second son, Trig Paxson Van Palin, who has Down syndrome.[9] She returned to the office three days after giving birth.[10] Palin refused to let the results of prenatal genetic testing change her decision to have the baby. “I’m looking at him right now, and I see perfection,” Palin said. “Yeah, he has an extra chromosome. I keep thinking, in our world, what is normal and what is perfect?"[10]

Details of Palin’s personal life have contributed to her political image. She hunts, eats moose hamburger, ice fishes, rides snowmobiles, and owns a float plane.[11][12] Palin holds a lifetime membership with the National Rifle Association. She admits that she used marijuana when it was legal in Alaska, but says that she did not like it.[13]

What a cool chick.  I’ll have to read up on her positions more, but I got a kick out of reading the above quote.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 09:43 AM from United States

Can we have the Pres and VP positions reversed, and then drop McCain?  I’d rather vote for Palin for president than anyone that has actually run for the office in a very long time…

Posted by Hal_10000 on 08/29/08 at 10:03 AM from United States

Palin has zero foreign policy experience, so she’s not ready to be President yet.

I also think it’s interesting that three of the four candidates now have children serving in Iraq.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 10:16 AM from United States

Palin has zero foreign policy experience, so she’s not ready to be President yet.

Good word, ‘yet’.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 10:22 AM from United States

How much foreign policy experience did Reagan have?

I really think that this is a red herring - this is why they have advisers.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 10:58 AM from United States

I give McCain credit. Palin is a brilliant pick. She’s young, energetic, a Washington outsider, conservative, and if I may say so, pretty.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:04 AM from United States

Palin has zero foreign policy experience, so she’s not ready to be President yet.

Just like Obama

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:06 AM from United States

This is a great pick-it will peel off a few Clinton voters.  Also look for McCain to reverse on drilling in ANWR-Palin gives him cover for that.  The drilling issue is going to be big-most people just don’t believe the dems argument that more oil production will not affect the price of oil (which of course it will).

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:13 AM from United States

Take it from this liberal:  McCain just secured the White House.  (Some may say he already had.....)

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:29 AM from United States

Also look for McCain to reverse on drilling in ANWR-Palin gives him cover for that.

I don’t see drilling in ANWR being very popular amongst hard core Dems. 

Take it from this liberal:  McCain just secured the White House.

I am not as pessimistic.  Someone just reiterated her comment as a hockey mom from Alaska.  Some right wing half wit lauded her hefty PTA experience.  I hope that one makes YouTube.  Someone needs to tell her about sound bite politics.

She was mayor of a town of 9000.  It may help him initially, until people realize that this man had had cancer and she just might become President someday.  I will listen to what she says before I decide what I think.

Posted by Hal_10000 on 08/29/08 at 11:33 AM from United States

I’m with flogg.  I don’t buy that the identity politics are that big here.  Ferraro was a total non-factor in 1984.  McCain’s age and health make Palin more significant.  But I still think that, in the end, people vote for a President, not a Veep.

If they did vote based on VP, Bush I wouldn’t have gotten ten votes.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:36 AM from United States

I don’t see drilling in ANWR being very popular amongst hard core Dems. 

No, but they’re not going for McCain anyways.  It is something independents tend to support, and with an advocate like Palin, can help secure the middle on the top issue of this election (energy).

I will listen to what she says before I decide what I think.

I trust you will be impressed.  The more Americans get to know her, the more they will like her and have “CiC confidence” in her.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:37 AM from United States

It may help him initially, until people realize that this man had had cancer and she just might become President someday

Considering that I know far more people that would like her to be president rather than McCain, I’d say that it’s a big plus.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:37 AM from United States

But I still think that, in the end, people vote for a President, not a Veep.

That certainly is what typically happens, but if there’s one rule in politics, it’s that there are no rules.  With the right message and campaign, the veep can make a difference.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:41 AM from United States

Ferraro was a total non-factor in 1984

There are some good reasons for that - to start with, nobody gave a damn about her.  She was, and still is, just another shrill, self-serving liberal from NYC.  Nobody was fired up about Mondale either - he was seen as token sacrifice he really was.  His time was over, and had been since he became associated with Jimmy.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 11:51 AM from United States

McCain just secured the White House.

Barring a major meltdown, I agree.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 12:22 PM from United States

“Palin has zero foreign policy experience, so she’s not ready to be President yet.”

“Just like Obama”

Yeah, and Palin would be elected to be next in line.  Obama would go straight to POTUS.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 01:18 PM from United States

This is an inspired choice, given the cast of characters McCain was supposed to be selecting from, though I think you have to be living in fantasyland to think that Hillary supporters are going to vote for McCain based on his selecting a pro-life, ANWAR drilling governor as his running mate.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 01:34 PM from United States

I think a substantial number of them will.  There appears to be a rather large amount of Obama-hate floating around the Hillary camp, and the convention apparently didn’t soothe them at all.  For many of them the fact that it is a woman is going to trump all else.

Posted by Miguelito on 08/29/08 at 01:49 PM from United States

I’m betting that Hillary is worried.  If McCain wins and is even just 1/2 way decent.. unless Palin really pisses off a lot of people, she’d be in a great situation to become the next pres.. and would likely beat Clinton by a mile.

Posted by dwex on 08/29/08 at 01:52 PM from Germany

I wrote a post on why I think this is an astonishingly good choice over at The VO - The Maverick Has Still Got It:

I reserve the right to modify this opinion piece once I learn more about Sarah Palin. But at this point, I’m absolutely giddy with the realization that The Maverick has still got it - and has positioned things absolutely brilliantly to keep Hillary in the background for a long, long time.

Please give it a look-see.

Posted by dwex on 08/29/08 at 01:53 PM from Germany

Update: Dad gum, I wish I’d thought of this.

awesome

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 02:03 PM from United States

I think the proper response for all the leftist asswipes that say “beauty queen” is something along the lines of the following

“are you envious or threatened that she’s both smart and pretty?”

“yeah, unlike liberals we don’t want our women to be ass-ugly lesbians like Hillary”

“must be a real bitch when all you can do is point out how hot she is”

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 02:08 PM from United States

SO:  I just don’t think that’s true.  The Hillary crowd are by and large RABIDLY pro-choice.  If nothing else, Palin is a darling of the pro-life crowd, and that by itself will be a HUGE HUGE turn-off for Clintistas.

I talked to a big-time Clinton supporter right around the beginning of June, and she said she thought that Condi Rice would be an inspired choice for McCain, but she personaly couldn’t vote for that ticket because of Condi’s stance on abortion.  There may be some percentage of women who will vote for a woman no matter what their stance, but it can’t be more than a portion of a percent.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 02:16 PM from United States

“are you envious or threatened that she’s both smart and pretty?”

*Snick*, you’re shitting me.  I am loving the circle jerk over Palin, a smart, but empty suit with no experience that gave a good speech.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 02:29 PM from United States

I wrote a post on why I think this is an astonishingly good choice over at The VO - The Maverick Has Still Got It:

Great post, dwex.  It’s funny, early on in the campaigns I said that I (dis)liked all 3 candidates equally.  I am not rabidly in favor of Obama, McCain, or Clinton, nor am I rabidly against them.  Obviously, I have more in common, positionwise, with Obama and Clinton, but McCain was the man who *should* have been running for the GOP in 2000.  He would have gotten my vote then, for sure.  He might now.  But truthfully, I think, for me, there’s enough to like and dislike about all 3 that I had come to a peaceful realization that I would be content with any of them.  I still hold that position, now that it’s down to 2.

There is no Michael Jordan this year.  But this is the first time in awhile that I will be happy on inauguration day.

Posted by West Virginia Rebel on 08/29/08 at 03:01 PM from United States

Although I like how she stood up to the status quo in Alaska (and what a slap to Ted Stevens this is!) I do find it ironic how some of the same people who were attacking Obama for his inexperience are suddenly praising a pick who’s...young and charismatic, and who’s only been in office for a few years. On the plus side, we can count on her definitely not being another Dick Cheney.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 03:24 PM from United States

There may be some percentage of women who will vote for a woman no matter what their stance, but it can’t be more than a portion of a percent.

So less that 1 percent??! Are you fucking nuts?! He just won the election. This gives a lot of women and men for that matter an excuse to NOT vote for the Obamamessiah. Believe me there are plenty looking for just that excuse. They might be liberals, and they might care about abortion, but they also deep down want cheap gas( more drilling), and dont want to see the economy destroyed by the imbecile from Illinois. This election is over.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 03:34 PM from United States

*Snick*, you’re shitting me.  I am loving the circle jerk over Palin, a smart, but empty suit with no experience that gave a good speech.

So pretty much a female Obama then?!

Does the PTA thing bother you , or the city council thing, or being a mayor of a small town, and then winning the governership of a state. How about being a mother of five including an active duty serviceman on his way to Iraq. Perhaps its her personal history of being the point guard on a state championship winning high school basketball team, or her background in pageants. Maybe its her avid fishing and hunting background.

She’s defintely been a busy woman.

You can call her an empty suit all you like, but this chick should scare the hell out of you liberals. She is in short a winner.

Near as I can tell that is what she does best.

Win,

and shes gonna win again.

( small disclaimer, I am taking the leap that the vetting process was thorough, and we wont find out she’s also a swinger with a penchant for gangbangs or anything odd like that).

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 03:40 PM from United States

Does the PTA thing bother you , or the city council thing, or being a mayor of a small town, and then winning the governership of a state. How about being a mother of five including an active duty serviceman on his way to Iraq. Perhaps its her personal history of being the point guard on a state championship winning high school basketball team, or her background in pageants. Maybe its her avid fishing and hunting background.

None of that bothers me, why would it?  I don’t see how you are blind to the parallels with Obama.  He has had a similarly full life.

Posted by HARLEY on 08/29/08 at 03:40 PM from United States

WOW! McCain has made what seems to be a good choice! not the regular rigmarole…

After hearing her speech im wondering WHY she is not the nominee?!
maybe in 4 years.

As for her inexperience, is not that what the job of VP is>?  a ceremonial role, that is also a training role?

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 03:45 PM from United States

I don’t see how you are blind to the parallels with Obama.  He has had a similarly full life

My problem with Obama is that he is a liberal. An economy destoying, bringing back the Fairness Doctrine, marginalizing my gun rights, taxing the living shit out of me when i already have a billion kids to take care, socialist dipshit.

I just found it odd you’d call a woman so accomplished an empty suit.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 03:46 PM from United States

I wonder if Chris Mathews will laud her for not being on either drugs or welfare.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 03:52 PM from United States

I just found it odd you’d call a woman so accomplished an empty suit.

Just goadin’ the conservatives having masturbatory fantasies about a woman after criticizing liberals for doing just that.  Why did conseratives call Obama an empty suit when he is anything but?  That road goes both ways.  Personally, I don’t really care about experience.  Bill Clinton was right - nothing will prepare you for being president.  I just don’t know why people are talking about her PTA experience.  Ludicrous.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 04:00 PM from United States

Ed Kline: How many liberals do you talk to on a regular basis?  I’m taking a couple of classes at the local university and come into contact with them far too often, including a feminist pro-Clinton supporter who taught the last polisci class I had.  As I said before, Clintonistas are overwhelmingly pro-choice, and that issue comes before anything else.  If she and McCain were neutral on abortion then identity politics would come into play, but they’re on record as wanting to overturn Roe v. Wade, and that shit’s just not going to fly with them.

I’ll tell you what, if you really think there’s going to be a massive move to McCain because of this move, put your money where your mouth is.  I’ll put $100 on Obama getting at least 45% of the vote.  If this election is truly over, that should be a no-brainer for you.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 04:07 PM from United States

I’ll tell you what, if you really think there’s going to be a massive move to McCain because of this move, put your money where your mouth is.  I’ll put $100 on Obama getting at least 45% of the vote.  If this election is truly over, that should be a no-brainer for you.

ridiculous...54-46 is not a close vote. Its like we are arguing over average height and you just bet the average man is at least 5’7…

How many liberals do you talk to on a regular basis?  I’m taking a couple of classes at the local university and come into contact with them far too often, including a feminist pro-Clinton supporter who taught the last polisci class I had.  As I said before, Clintonistas are overwhelmingly pro-choice, and that issue comes before anything else.

You’re talking to different liberals than I. I am talking to teachers ( most female, and ready to put gender over abortion ), and middle aged professionals who are suffering from white guilt, but arent fiscal imbeciles. I cant tell you how many people I have met that cringe embarrasingly when forced to talk about Obama’s actual policy choices who are voting for him because they feel they should. Now the have a viable option.

They will be all the difference that is needed. This election is over, but I cant put my finger on a good over/under for the election.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 04:10 PM from United States

including a feminist pro-Clinton supporter who taught the last polisci class I had.

This is like a liberal talking about conservatives in general terms and bringing up the abortion protestor they met last week as an example.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 04:11 PM from United States

Ok, so you’re already admitting it won’t be a blowout.  How close do you want it.  46%, 47% 49% would be silly considering how much bluster you’re spouting… put your money where your mouth is, I mean it.

Posted by HARLEY on 08/29/08 at 04:13 PM from United States

Obama getting at least 45% of the vote.

the popular vote? , id have to agree with you, it will be close to that for sure.
Ill call it 43% for Obama with the balance going to McCain.

How ever you can never count out McCain screwing the pooch and tanking.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 04:17 PM from United States

Harley: 45% seems like a fair line to me too, especially if Palin is swinging all the liberals that Ed Kline insists she will.  I set it at 45% because I think Kline is full of shit, and if put to the test would back off.  Living where I live, and having spent a fair amount of time with liberals, I think I know a fuck of a lot more about what they think than Kline does, but am more than willing to be a man about it and put my beliefs to the test.  What about you Kline?  You gonna pussy around or are you going to keep spewing nonsense?

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 04:22 PM from United States

Ok, so you’re already admitting it won’t be a blowout.  How close do you want it.  46%, 47% 49% would be silly considering how much bluster you’re spouting… put your money where your mouth is, I mean it.

I dont think you get it. I gamble for a living.

Oe thing I dont do is put my money in bad. I simply dont know enough about this process to come up with a viable number. More importantly, to many people dont vote in states that they are sure their votes dont count in. So I cannot take a bet on the popular vote as that it is skewed by perceptions.

I think this election is over because I think it woudve been very very close ( not sure in whose favor) before this pick, and I think that Palin will play well in Ohio, Florida, and Michigan and a few other close states that Bush won that McCain was-is vulnerable in.
I am sure that McCain will win the popular vote by at least the slimmest of margins, but I am much more sure he will win the states he will need too now. If he wins Ohio because of Palin, who cares how much of a blowout he loses by in California.
If I lived in California I wouldnt bother voting.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 04:28 PM from United States

So what you’re saying is that despite that “This gives a lot of women and men for that matter an excuse to NOT vote for the Obamamessiah.” you wouldn’t dare to dream of putting $100 on Obama getting less than 48% of the popular vote, do I have that right?  You also implied that my “less than 1%” number was laughable, perhaps you could quantify how many “a lot” is? 

The fact is you’re more than happy to throw out bullshit, but when someone asks you to stand behind it, all of the sudden it’s “I am sure McCain will win the vote by the slimmest of margins.” What a difference $100 makes, huh?  If you were that confident that this pick would make a lot of liberals pick McCain, you’d have no problem taking my bet.  This just proves you are 100% full of shit.

Posted by HARLEY on 08/29/08 at 04:41 PM from United States

hmm the 5th most searched reference to Sarah Palin is the word: scandal.

PERVERT ALERT::::
The eldest daughter is a hottie.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 04:41 PM from United States

45% seems like a fair line to me too, especially if Palin is swinging all the liberals that Ed Kline insists she will.  I set it at 45% because I think Kline is full of shit, and if put to the test would back off.  Living where I live, and having spent a fair amount of time with liberals, I think I know a fuck of a lot more about what they think than Kline does, but am more than willing to be a man about it and put my beliefs to the test.  What about you Kline?  You gonna pussy around or are you going to keep spewing nonsense?

Ok you’re retarded. If you want to know whose dick is bigger just fuckign ask.

This is a simple deconstruction.

especially if Palin is swinging all the liberals that Ed Kline insists she will.

the number I am insisting on is. ‘enough to win’. I didnt say she just picked up 7 of the 18 million Hillary voters. Also I think that she will give people ( read slightly left of center) who are uneasy about Obama’s absurd ecomnomic poicies a viable option that sits well with their more liberal sensibilities.

I set it at 45% because I think Kline is full of shit, and if put to the test would back off.

So youget to set the over/under, and then if I dont allow myself to be goaded into making a very secific bet I dont feel informed enough to make, then I lack the courage of my convictions that McCain will now win?? You should try attending a class on logic in that school you attend.

Living where I live, and having spent a fair amount of time with liberals, I think I know a fuck of a lot more about what they think than Kline does,

I think there afre more types of liberals than you realize. Lieflong blue dogs, teamsters/electricians unions, teachers, professionals who were flaming liberals 15 years ago, but now that they make 100k+ a year and have 3 kids, are coming to their senses.

You’re right, that this wont sway your former poli/sci professor, but she is not any more your average slightly left of center lib than abortion clinic protesters are indicative of the people on this blog.( save that idiot iconoclast).

I think I know a fuck of a lot more about what they think than Kline does,

Specifically what is it about my background, town and state of residence, or whateverthat makes you think I dont come itno contact with gobs of liberals, amd more importantly undecided voters? Surely you have an actual......reason....to think you are more knowledgeable than I about liberals.

but am more than willing to be a man about it and put my beliefs to the test.

Yes you’ve certainly shown that you believe that Obama will get at least a mere 45% of the vote. Way to go out on a limb there buddy. Real ballsy bet!

What about you Kline?  You gonna pussy around or are you going to keep spewing nonsense?

I think there are more than just those two choices for me here. Especially considering that the two choices you outlayed aren’t incompatible. I could in theory pussy around AND continue to spout what you consider nonsense.

.  How close do you want it.  46%, 47% 49% would be silly considering how much bluster you’re spouting… put your money where your mouth is, I mean it.

I’ve already gone into detail as to why I dontthink that the popular vote numbers are worht betting on or even relevant.
I will gladly bet you that McCain will be our next president barring an unforeseen event like medical problems or he gets caught doing a Gary Hart.

You see how I did that?? I offered a bet that mirrored my claims > I bet McCain will win because I think McCain will win.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 04:49 PM from United States

You also implied that my “less than 1%” number was laughable

It is laughable. If you think that less than one percent of the 18 million Hillary voters are going to vote for McCAIn then you’re an idiot. Thats less than 180,000 for Chrissakes.

If you were that confident that this pick would make a lot of liberals pick McCain, you’d have no problem taking my bet.  This just proves you are 100% full of shit.

I am confident that it will make the neccessary difference. I didnt say it would make a ‘lot of liberals pick McCAIn’ just moerthan that piddly ‘less than 1%’, and more importantly will attract quite a few undecideds.

This just proves you are 100% full of shit.

Do you understand the concept of ‘proof’. You cant pick a betting line, dare someone to take the line you created , and then call into question the veracity of their claims when they dont bite. That isnt proof you blithering idiot. Its junior high bullshit that quite frankly isnt worthy of response. Someday you’e going to realize how dumb you sounded when you were young. If you’re already not young, then its too late for you.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 05:00 PM from United States

You see how I did that?? I offered a bet that mirrored my claims > I bet McCain will win because I think McCain will win.

And that’s a lot weaker a statement than what you started out with, which is exactly my point in the first place.  This move doesn’t provide any sort of huge sea change, it moves some slim amount of the populace at best, and certainly doesn’t put this election into the McCain’s got this thing clinched category.  If you really thought McCain had it in the bag, you’d be willing to put it at least within 3% points, the fact that you say it’ll be close on the popular vote more or less means that you know it’s not a sure thing.

I’d be willing to put $50 on Obama winning the election, for what it’s worth, though I’m not sure by any stretch that it’ll happen, I think it’s a coin flip and therefore a reasonable wager.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 05:05 PM from United States

I’d be willing to put $50 on Obama winning the election, for what it’s worth, though I’m not sure by any stretch that it’ll happen, I think it’s a coin flip and therefore a reasonable wager.

I’ll take that wager. In fact I will give you 6 to 5 on it.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 05:08 PM from United States

And yes, I do believe that less than the 180,000 who voted for Clinton will vote for McCain.  That doesn’t seem like a very strong stance to take considering most primaries are closed primaries and most people don’t cross party lines.  It’s not really testable though, which is why I thought using the popular vote would be the best yardstick.

You cant pick a betting line, dare someone to take the line you created ,

For what it’s worth, I offered to move the line wherever you wanted it.  If you’d accept setting the line at 48% I’d put it there.  I probably wouldn’t go to 49% because there’s a chance that neither candidate makes 50 (I’ve got no handle on what kind of campaign Bob Barr is going to run, and what, if any, difference he’ll make).

I’ll cop to being unreasonable and stupid on this, but I do believe that people much more accurately represent their beliefs when they’re asked to back them up with money.  Your latter statement about McCain’s chances in the general sound a lot more reasonable than your first statement does.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 05:11 PM from United States

Palin Positions You May Not Know About:

1. Creationist who wants Creationism taught in schools.

2. Denies Global Warming exists

3. Anti-Abortion, including in situations or rape and/or incest.

4. Supported Pat Buchanan in 2000.

5. Agreed with Barack’s Energy Policy as of… 24 days ago.

6. Said… 25 days ago.. that she didn’t even know what the VP does.

7. Under investigation by Special Prosecutor in Alaska for possible ethics violations.

8. Entire Alaska budget is only $2.9B, less than most medium sized cities in the USA.  For example, San Diego, CA, has a City Budget of 3.29B

9. She vetoed wind power and clean coal projects, including a 50-megawatt wind farm on Fire Island and a clean coal facility in Healy that had been mired in a dispute between local and state governments.

10. McCain offered her the job after meeting her one.  I’ll repeat that… ONCE.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 05:19 PM from United States

I probably wouldn’t go to 49% because there’s a chance that neither candidate makes 50 (I’ve got no handle on what kind of campaign Bob Barr is going to run, and what, if any, difference he’ll make).

Barr is one of the myriad of problems on making a realisitic line on this election. That and the fact the many conservative voters living in solidly red state who are less than enthused by McCain wont bother voting, and busy repubs living in blue states sometimes wont either. I just dont feel confident in the numbers, but I do feel extremely confident that Obama is going to lose, and that if McCain had made a different pick that might not be true( untestable I know). I think this gives him Ohio, and probably takes back Colorado. SO I think Obama winning is very improbable. Ergo my’ this election is over’ sillyness, though I still dont feel all that confident on the popular vote.

And yes, I do believe that less than the 180,000 who voted for Clinton will vote for McCain.

Yeah I really disagree with this. I’ve been readin theHillary forum, and it looks good for McCain to me.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 05:42 PM from United States

I’ll take that wager. In fact I will give you 6 to 5 on it.

Sounds good, I’ll take it.  This is a pretty straightforward bet so there’s no need to hash out details, right?

Yeah I really disagree with this. I’ve been readin theHillary forum, and it looks good for McCain to me.

There’s apparently been some speculation that a few people are doing the majority of the posting on these sites, though that seems a little far-fetched (though not improbable to me).  Nonetheless, due to the fact that Hillary’s policy stances are much closer to Obama (think health care, abortion), I just don’t see them pulling the lever for McCain.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 05:54 PM from United States

For every Hillary supported she might get, she’ll lose a moderate or independent that doesn’t like the right wing.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/29/08 at 05:56 PM from United States

Sounds good, I’ll take it.  This is a pretty straightforward bet so there’s no need to hash out details, right?

Youre betting 50 to win 60, and vice versa.
As for payment, I do this for a living. Welching is akin to cowardice under fire to me. You win, you get paid.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 06:09 PM from United States

Youre betting 50 to win 60, and vice versa.
As for payment, I do this for a living. Welching is akin to cowardice under fire to me. You win, you get paid.

It’s a deal then.  This is great, I think the election will be a lot more interesting now that I’ve got money on the line.

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 08:38 PM from United States

Now GADMAN, you’re just being juvenile, simplistic and downright deceptive.

Palin Positions You May Not Know About:

1. Creationist who wants Creationism taught in schools.

“While running for Governor of Alaska, Palin advocated the teaching of both creationism and evolution in public schools; but the next day, she said, “Creationism doesn’t have to be part of the curriculum” and that she would not use “religion as a litmus test, or anybody’s personal opinion on evolution or creationism” as criteria for selection to the school board.” (Wikipedia)

“‘I don’t think there should be a prohibition against debate if it comes up in class. It doesn’t have to be part of the curriculum.’”
and
“‘My dad did talk a lot about his theories of evolution,’ she said. ‘He would show us fossils and say, ‘How old do you think these are?’ “

Asked for her personal views on evolution, Palin said, ‘I believe we have a creator.’

She would not say whether her belief also allowed her to accept the theory of evolution as fact.

‘I’m not going to pretend I know how all this came to be,’ she said.” (both quotes from Afarensis)

Oh no, run away, what a scary fundamentalist!

A lot of scientists who believe in evolution also believe in a God.  Big whoop.  Belief in a creator is not the same as being a creationist.  That’s just sloppy, fear-mongering labeling.

2. Denies Global Warming exists

“Palin has announced plans to create a new sub-cabinet group of advisors to address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions within Alaska. After she was announced as McCain’s presumptive running mate, she stated that she does not believe that climate change is man-made.” (Wikipedia)

Disbelief in anthropogenic climate change is a far, far cry from denying global warming exists.

3. Anti-Abortion, including in situations or rape and/or incest.

Unfortunately true, but do you really think her stance will gain any traction legislatively?  Not a chance.

5. Agreed with Barack’s Energy Policy as of… 24 days ago.

How dare she, as someone with experience in the energy market, buck part of the conservative platform and think for herself on the issue!  We may have to think of a name for that kind of thing.  Perhaps, and I’m just throwing this out there, maverick?

But honestly, to be more specific, she agrees with PART of his energy plan, such as the construction of a natural gas pipeline.  But I don’t think this was in Obama’s plan: “Palin has strongly promoted oil resource development in Alaska, including opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.” (Wiki)

Conversely, I haven’t heard many republicans backing this one: “She has also helped pass a tax increase on oil company profits.” (Wiki)

6. Said… 25 days ago.. that she didn’t even know what the VP does.

Did you watch the video?  She was being facetious and deflecting the line of questioning.

Another take on the same comment: “Her evident distaste for the office would be part of her appeal: It would show McCain is running an anti-Washington, reformist campaign.” (Politico)

7. Under investigation by Special Prosecutor in Alaska for possible ethics violations.

Technically for A violation (not multiple), and the same video mentioned in #6 addresses that.  She has other reasons for having him fired, her sister’s divorce was years before, and she welcomes the probe.  She also has a strong history in her time as governor of rooting out corruption on both sides of the political aisle.  An ethics violation is outside of her established character.

She might have done it, but there is more reason to believe her story than not to.  Try being a bigger man and wait until she is found guilty or innocent instead of throwing around petty rumors.

8. Entire Alaska budget is only $2.9B, less than most medium sized cities in the USA.  For example, San Diego, CA, has a City Budget of 3.29B

I’m sure you have a point behind that one… ?

9. She vetoed wind power and clean coal projects, including a 50-megawatt wind farm on Fire Island and a clean coal facility in Healy that had been mired in a dispute between local and state governments.

“Palin said last year that she vetoed some energy projects because they were premature. She wanted to wait for a study on a possible Railbelt Electrical Grid Authority before signing off on individual projects. The final draft of that study is due in late May.” (Anchorage Daily News)

And you said yourself that the clean coal faciltiy “had been mired in a dispute between local and state governments.” Why not cut that off and reboot the discussion?

Posted by on 08/29/08 at 11:38 PM from United States

Ed, I congratulate you on your defense of Palin.  You’ve got your head on perfectly straight in this one.

Posted by Ed Kline on 08/30/08 at 05:56 AM from United States

8. Entire Alaska budget is only $2.9B, less than most medium sized cities in the USA.  For example, San Diego, CA, has a City Budget of 3.29B

I am sure the city of San Diego with its bloated budget like every other city in California is the poorer for it.

Posted by on 08/30/08 at 11:13 AM from United States

On the plus side, we can count on her definitely not being another Dick Cheney.

True, apparently she’s a much better shot than Dick is…

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