Right Thinking From The Left Coast
I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have. - Thomas Jefferson

Sunday, December 05, 2010

The Gift That Keeps On Not Giving

Doubtless, you’ve heard about the latest unemployment figures.  Here’s the now infamous graph, courtesy of Cato:


image

For those of you keeping score at home, we are about three percentage points higher than projection—these being the same projections that claim we’ve “created or saved” several millions jobs.  We are still following the line predicted for “no action”.  There is a slightl decline from the peak earlier this year.  But it’s very slow.  And this is after three wave of demand-side stimulus (two from Bush, one from Obama).

There’s a new study out there that looks at the stimulus generously and concludes that it created two million jobs (at a cost of $400k each) but those jobs vanished quickly.  That tends to happen when the jobs are unsustainable “industries” like government and its associated dependents.  So the most the stimulus proponents can possibly claim is that we avoid a worse peak (maybe a percent higher).  And by the end of 2012, we will back to the point where the “stimulus” and “no stimulus” projections meet.  In other words, the effect of the stimulus—even using its bullshit projections—is quickly wearing away.  Almost any progress made from this point is due to other factors.

$800 billion should have bought a lot more, don’t you think?

Posted by Hal_10000 on 12/05/10 at 08:48 PM in Politics   Law, & Economics  • (0) TrackbacksPermalink
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